Spatiotemporal Variability in Extreme Precipitation in China from Observations and Projections

作者:Peng, YF (Peng, Yifeng)[ 1,2,3 ] ; Zhao, X (Zhao, Xiang)[ 1,2,3 ] ; Wu, DH (Wu, Donghai)[ 4 ] ; Tang, BJ (Tang, Bijian)[ 5 ] ; Xu, PP (Xu, Peipei)[ 6 ] ; Du, XZ (Du, Xiaozheng)[ 1,2,3 ] ; Wang, HY (Wang, Haoyu)[ 1,2,3 ]

WATER

卷: 10  期: 8

文献号: 1089

DOI: 10.3390/w10081089

出版年: AUG 2018

 

摘要

Extreme precipitation events, which have intensified with global warming over the past several decades, will become more intense in the future according to model projections. Although many studies have been performed, the occurrence patterns for extreme precipitation events in past and future periods in China remain unresolved. Additionally, few studies have explained how extreme precipitation events developed over the past 58 years and how they will evolve in the next 90 years as global warming becomes much more serious. In this paper, we evaluated the spatiotemporal characteristics of extreme precipitation events using indices for the frequency, quantity, intensity, and proportion of extreme precipitation, which were proposed by the World Meteorological Organization. We simultaneously analyzed the spatiotemporal characteristics of extreme precipitation in China from 2011 to 2100 using data obtained from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models. Despite the fixed threshold, 95th percentile precipitation values were also used as the extreme precipitation threshold to reduce the influence of various rainfall events caused by different geographic locations; then, eight extreme precipitation indices (EPIs) were calculated to evaluate extreme precipitation in China. We found that the spatial characteristics of the eight EPIs exhibited downward trends from south to north. In the periods 1960-2017 and 2011-2100, trends in the EPIs were positive, but there were differences between different regions. In the past 58 years, the extreme precipitation increased in the northwest, southeast, and the Tibet Plateau of China, while decreased in northern China. Almost all the trends of EPIs are positive in the next two periods (2011-2055 and 2056-2100) except for some EPIs, such as intensity of extreme precipitation, which decrease in southeastern China in the second period (2056-2100). This study suggests that the frequency of extreme precipitation events in China will progressively increase, which implies that a substantial burden will be placed on social economies and terrestrial ecological processes.

 

通讯作者地址: Zhao, X (通讯作者)

Beijing Normal Univ, State Key Lab Remote Sensing Sci, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China.

通讯作者地址: Zhao, X (通讯作者)

Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Remote Sensing & Digital Earth, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China.

通讯作者地址: Zhao, X (通讯作者)

Beijing Normal Univ, Fac Geog Sci, Inst Remote Sensing Sci & Engn, Beijing Engn Res Ctr Global Land Remote Sensing P, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China.

地址:

[ 1 ] Beijing Normal Univ, State Key Lab Remote Sensing Sci, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China

[ 2 ] Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Remote Sensing & Digital Earth, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China

[ 3 ] Beijing Normal Univ, Fac Geog Sci, Inst Remote Sensing Sci & Engn, Beijing Engn Res Ctr Global Land Remote Sensing P, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China

[ 4 ] Peking Univ, Coll Urban & Environm Sci, Beijing 100871, Peoples R China

[ 5 ] Hong Kong Univ Sci & Technol, Div Environm & Sustainabil, Kowloon 999077, Hong Kong, Peoples R China

[ 6 ] Beijing Normal Univ, Fac Geog Sci, State Key Lab Earth Surface Proc & Resource Ecol, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China